Your returns, explained
Declan Kennedy
| 08-07-2026

· Information Team
Here's a number that should make you pause: studies consistently show that the average individual investor significantly underperforms the market over time.
Not because the market is unfair. Not because big institutions have some secret advantage. But because of the way ordinary human beings think, feel, and react when their money is on the line.
The stock market doesn't beat most people — most people beat themselves. And the mechanism behind that is more psychological than financial.
Buying High, Selling Low — The Classic Trap
It sounds obvious when you say it out loud: buy low, sell high. But in practice, most people do the exact opposite. When markets are rising and everyone around you is making money, the fear of missing out becomes overwhelming.
People pile in near market peaks, when prices are already expensive, simply because the mood feels right. Then when markets drop and the news turns negative, panic sets in. People sell at the worst possible moment — locking in losses and missing the recovery that almost always follows.
A widely cited DALBAR study found that over the 30 years ending December 31, 2015, the S&P 500 returned 10.35% annually while the average equity mutual fund investor earned 3.66%. DALBAR linked much of the gap to investor behavior, including poorly timed buying and selling, though fees and other costs also played a role.
Overconfidence — The Most Expensive Mistake
Most people rate themselves as above-average drivers. Most investors think they can pick winning stocks better than average. Both groups are statistically wrong in the same direction. Overconfidence leads investors to trade too frequently, concentrate too heavily in a few positions, and ignore warning signs that contradict their existing view.
What Experts Say About Loss Aversion
Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky gave investors one of behavioral finance’s most useful warnings when they wrote of “losses to loom larger than gains.” In practical terms, a loss can weigh more heavily than an equal gain, and later prospect-theory estimates have often placed that imbalance at a little more than two-to-one, though the exact size varies by context.
For investors, the danger is not only feeling pain when a position falls. It is using the purchase price as an emotional reference point, holding a losing stock while waiting to “get back to even,” or selling a winner too soon because a paper gain suddenly feels fragile.
Terrance Odean’s study of 10,000 brokerage accounts found that investors realized winning positions more readily than losing ones, showing how this pattern appears in real trading behavior. The damage is subtle: a portfolio can end up keeping positions because they hurt to sell, not because they still deserve capital.
The News Trap
Financial news is designed to be watched, not acted on. Every market movement gets a narrative — a reason, a villain, a prediction. Markets drop and headlines scream recession. Markets rise and pundits declare a new era of prosperity. Investors who make decisions based on daily financial news are essentially steering a ship by watching the wake rather than the horizon. The data is clear: the more financial news an investor consumes, the more likely they are to trade reactively and the worse their long-term results tend to be.
What Actually Works
The evidence points consistently in one direction: simplicity wins. Regular contributions to a diversified, low-cost index fund — regardless of what the market is doing — outperforms the vast majority of active strategies over long time periods. Not because it's clever, but because it removes the human decision-making that causes most of the damage. Set an amount, automate it, don't look too often, and let compounding do its work over years and decades.
The stock market rewards discipline more than intelligence. Most people lose money not because the game is rigged, but because they can't get out of their own heads long enough to let a simple strategy work. Recognizing that your instincts are often wrong is, genuinely, the most valuable financial insight you can have.